Southwest Airlines (LUV) equity returns at 193 days normalized to the S&P500 returns are -10.3% (predicted based on historic reputation risk for LUV: -7.0%). It is under performing the Dow Jones US Airlines Index (DJUSAR) by 28.7%. The implied loss to shareholders is $2bn.
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Panic and stock share dump. Thriving in a tornado corridor or flood plain demands fortitude and a reliable risk strategy. The same goes for investing in equity markets. In times of panic — think Southwest Airlines, Norfolk Southern and Silicon Valley Bank — investor moxie may give way to stock share dumps. […] Integrated processes, timely intelligence and good risk communications will help investors appreciate and value risk strategies and not panic.
Mission critical risk denial can be costly. A holiday flight cancellation fiasco by Southwest Airlines crushed the company’s market capitalization and caused the company to take an $800 million dollar write-down for Q4 and record losses three times greater than analysts had expected. Equity returns 42 days into the crisis show Southwest trailing the Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index by 18.4%. Had it merely kept pace with that index, Southwest’s market cap would have been more than $3.3 billion higher.
Southwest Airlines Reputation Crisis Day 35. Equity returns at 35 days normalized to the S&P500 returns are -6.2% (predicted -5.7%). It is under performing the Dow Jones US Airlines Index (DJUSAR) by 15.4%. The regression technology powering the equity impact model was derived from a study by Steel City Re, an ESG and reputation insurer.
Angry Reactions From Stakeholders. Southwest Airlines promoted five executives as the budget air carrier continues to reel from an operational meltdown that resulted in nearly 17,000 canceled flights over the chaotic holiday travel season. The company said … the moves would “strengthen our operational execution.” […] Nir Kossovsky, an expert on corporate risk and CEO of Steel City Re, told FOX Business that the angry reactions from apparent stakeholders is further evidence that Southwest is going through a “reputational crisis.”
Delayed maintenance creates reputation risk. In the aftermath of a meltdown that led to 16,700 flight cancellations and may cost the airline more than $800 million, blame has fallen on an outmoded crew scheduling system and an unusual point-to-point route network. […] Southwest has acknowledged putting updates to its crew scheduling system behind other improvements, despite long-standing complaints from pilots and flight attendants.
Culture limits risk strategy. Southwest was overwhelmed and unable to adapt as a severe storm swept the US. But behind those specific issues is an insular management team that critics say lacks the imagination and technology expertise to help avoid such crises. […] The carrier has a long-standing reputation of being slow to adopt new technology, and spent years implementing a new reservation system and updating its maintenance operations.
“There is a standard pattern after a major reputational event. It begins with the event that is usually emotionally charged and leaves a lot of people disappointed, and thereafter every different stakeholder group will have their say. Customers will obviously be disappointed, employees will be disappointed, and shareholders will be disappointed,” said Nir Kossovsky, a reputation risk expert. “
Southwest Airlines canceled between Dec. 22 and Jan. 1 around 37% of its schedule. […] The holiday flight disruption is likely to have lasting consequences for Southwest’s reputation, Nir Kossovsky, CEO of reputation risk insurer Steel City Re, said. “In addition to the large swath of customers who are angry and disappointed and likely to act on those feelings in the future, reputational damage of this magnitude often triggers a pile-on of regulators, litigators, and activists,” he said. “It’s no surprise Southwest’s shares are now underperforming the airline index.”